US Open Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Tuesday's Tennis Action (Sept. 1)

US Open Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Tuesday's Tennis Action (Sept. 1)
US Open Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Tuesday's Tennis Action (Sept. 1)https://www.actionnetwork.com/tennis/us-open-betting-picks-best-bets-tuesday-sept-1 US Open Betting Picks: Our Best Bets for Tuesdays Tennis Action (Sept. 1) Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Day 1 of the 2020 US Open belonged to the chalk. Nobody really knew what to expect in this unprecedented tournament but there were very few upsets at the Billie Jean King Tennis National Tennis Center on Monday. Will we start to see some chaos on Day 2? Heres our three favorite bets for Tuesdays tennis action: Tuesday NBA Promo! Bet $20 Win $125 if Jazz Have at Least 1 Slam DunkRead now Sean Zerillo: Vasek Pospisil (-118) over Philipp Kohlschreiber Odds available at William Hill [Bet Now] Time: Approx. 1 p.m. ET Vasek Pospisil had back surgery early in 2019 and since he returned to the court he has been playing his best and healthiest brand of tennis in several years. Notice how the Canadians combined rate of service and return games won took a noticeable dip after he fell out of the Top 25 in 2015 before rebounding over the past two seasons: 2013: 104.7% 2014: 98.2% 2015: 100.6% 2016: 89.7% 2017: 94.9% 2018: 93.8% 2019: 96.6% 2020: 105.8% He was on fire prior to the pandemic shutdown despite a first round exit at the Australian Open reaching the final in the Open Sud de France while defeating David Goffin and Denis Shapovalov before taking down Daniil Medvedev in Rotterdam and Hubert Hurkacz in Marseille. [Track your US Open bets in the The Action Network App.] Outside of a run to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2015 Pospisil has never had too much success at Slams but he has won three of his past four opening round matchups in Queens with a combined 0-9 record in other majors since his London calling. His opponent 36-year-old Phillip Kohlschreiber has had quite a bit of success in Slams with a 73-61 record (54.4%) but his own hold/break numbers are in a late-career decline: 2015: 107% 2016: 105.1% 2017: 106.5% 2018: 100.7% 2019: 100.8% 2020: 103.3% Over the past 52 weeks Pospisil owns a 3.2% edge on hard courts 104.3% to 101.3% and although the match is five years old at this point its an added bonus that he defeated Kohlschreiber on a hard court in their only prior meeting (6-4 6-2 at Rotterdam 2015). Universal Tennis Rating has Pospisil as the current World No. 12 ahead of Filip Krajinovic Alex de Minaur and Reilly Opelka while Kohlschreiber is all the way down at No. 48 just behind Adrian Mannarino. Tennis Abstract gives Pospisil a 55% chance of winning the match with implied odds of -122 and I would bet him up to that number. [Bet now at William Hill. NJ only.] Stuckey: Mihaela Buzarnescu (230) over Sloane Stephens Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now] Time: Approx. 5 p.m. ET This play goes against everything that Ive told myself: avoid backing the players who havent played since the Tour returned. Im glad I took this approach as play hasnt been pretty for those returning for their first match. However I have to make an exception here and back Mihaela Buzarnescu who we havent seen in quite some time. I just cant pass up fading Sloane Stephens current form at this price. Sloane has lost in the first round in six of her seven tournament appearances in 2020.And her lone win of the season came back in early March against Emma Navarro who currently ranks outside of the top 500. And its not like shes lost to top tier competition all year. Here are the Americans seven losses: Liudmila Samsonova in Brisbane Ariana Rodionova in Adelaide Shuai Zhang in Melbourne Renata Zarazua in Acapulco Leylah Fernandez in Monterrey Leylah Fernandez in Lexington Caroline Garcia in New York Only Shuai currently ranks inside the top 50. Not only is Sloane 1-7 on hard courts in 2020 she finished 2019 on this surface with a subpar 10-13 record. She just didnt look confident out on the court in her two matches since the restart and wasnt moving as well as she has in the past. Thats troublesome as she relies on her all-court coverage. Stephens certainly possesses a ton of power but her defense leads the way when shes right. Some may argue that Sloane always steps up her game to another level in Slams. Its a fair point as the American has previously had underwhelming results prior to success at a Major. But shes currently far from the player we saw win the US Open in 2017. The new courts might not suit this version of Sloane who I also think thrives off the energy of major crowds a luxury she wont enjoy this year. Prior to the draw I was hoping we would get a more ideal scenario to take on Stephens. Instead Stephens got matched up with Buzarnescu who hasnt played a competitive match since 2019. The Romanian took time off to deal with an ankle injury that hampered her all of last season leading to some poor results. I essentially threw out her 2019 results and assume shes now healthy but how much will rust will we see? Nobody really knows. The serve could break down and she could just be totally off her game. I wont sit here and tell you I know shes going to be solid so I completely understand if you want no part of betting on Buzarnescu who has lost in the first round in both of her career main draw appearances at the US Open. Stephens has lost in the first round in each of the last two hard court majors including a straight-set loss to Anna Kalinskaya last year at the US Open. Theres a lot of guesswork backing Buzarnescu but I took a shot fading Sloane at this price. Lets hope Buzarnescu can shake off the cobwebs and look like the player we saw win San Jose in 2018. Absolutely no result would surprise me so Ill give the Romanian a chance at this number and would play her down to 225. [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1000 sign-up bonus.] Michael Leboff: Ivo Karlovic (460) over Richard Gasquet Odds available at DraftKings [Bet Now] Time: Approx. 5 p.m. ET Does betting on a 41-year-old in a best-of-5 tennis match sound like your idea of a fun time? Of course not. But that doesnt mean it isnt a good bet. Given the circumstances Im keeping my eye on a few big prices at the US Open and this was the first one to jump out at me for Round 1. Gasquet has basically every advantage in this match but Karlovics massive serve is the great equalizer. If Gasquet is able to break Karlovic this bet is toast but the courts in Queens are playing quick so I am hopeful that Dr. Ivo can give this bet some legs. This is a numbers play. At 460 you need Karlovic to win this match 18% of the time to have value. I think he easily surpasses that (Tennis Abstract gives Dr. Ivo a 29.5% chance). [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1000 sign-up bonus.] via Action Network https://www.actionnetwork.com https://sv88.com

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September 01, 2020 at 10:29AM
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